National Hurricane Centre two-day outlook for the tropical disturbance east of the Lesser Antilles. (Image courtesy NHC)

The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS) is closely monitoring an active tropical wave in the Atlantic, with the leading edge approximately 1,100 km east of the Lesser Antilles.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has given this tropical disturbance a low chance of development over the next 48 hours, at 30%, and keeping development chances low at 30% through the next five days. According to the NHC, showers and thunderstorms associated with the tropical wave continue to show signs of organization.

The system is moving towards the west near 25 KM/H. The latest analyses indicate that on the projected track, it should begin moving across the Eastern Caribbean islands on Wednesday, October 14th, 2020. However, most of the active weather (stronger winds, heavier rainfall) is forecast to remain north of Trinidad and Tobago, generally affecting the Northern Windward Islands and the Leewards, as of the latest model guidance.

National Hurricane Centre five-day outlook for the tropical disturbance east of the Lesser Antilles. (Image courtesy NHC)

The TTMS has stated regardless of development, this system will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Windward and Leeward islands from the evening of Wednesday October 14th, into Thursday October 15th, 2020.

The TTMS says it will continue to monitor this system closely and will issue an update at 10:00 AM tomorrow (Tuesday) or earlier, if the situation warrants.

We are past the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs until November 30th. It must be noted that in the past, October has produced the third-highest number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.

An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms. 2020 already has recorded 26 tropical depressions with 25 named storms, exhausting the list of names for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Forecasters are now using names from the Greek alphabet, where the next name on that list will be Epsilon.