Increasing COVID-19 trends a ‘cause for concern’

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Weeks after the Government implemented safe zones for vaccinated people and reopened schools to Forms Four-Six students, the Ministry of Health is noting a steady increase in COVID-19 infections from October into November.

It has labelled the increase a “cause for concern” and partly attributed it to the spread of the Delta variant, which is “establishing itself as the new dominant strain” in T&T.

Last week, Ministry of Health Technical Director of the Epidemiology Division, Dr Avery Hinds, revealed that the cases in October were higher than the totals in the previous three months. At the ministry’s COVID-19 update yesterday, Hinds showed aggregated data that indicated steady increases in daily and weekly cases, approximately 10 per cent week by week, from October into November.

It also showed that the number of positive COVID-19 samples compared to the total tested had increased by between five-10 per cent. Hinds said the country could climb to a 40 per cent positivity rate this week but noted the ministry was still collecting data. However, he said this meant that people must be careful, get vaccinated and adhere to the public health guidelines.

“We are already at, maybe one-third of the total for October, for really just the first week in November. So we are seeing that we are collecting or accruing cases at a faster rate, and we also see that the percentage positivity is showing an upward trend which is cause for concern. We are looking at increasing numbers of cases in the more recent weeks. The background positivity is also increasing, indicating that we do have to be careful and a need for adhering to the public health guidelines and optimising the number of people vaccinated continues to be of paramount importance,” Hinds said.

The demographics show the 25-49 age group continues to account for the bulk of cases. There was a minor increase in cases among people under 25, but over 60 remained almost the same. In terms of deaths, two-thirds are among the over 60 age group, of which 57 per cent are males.

Yesterday, the ministry reported 354 new infections and 13 deaths. Seven of those who succumbed were middle-aged people and two had no comorbidities. In just eight days into November, 89 COVID deaths have been recorded. The national tally now stands at 1,785.

This is why the ministry is now seeking to provide a third primary dose to people over 60 and those who are immunocompromised. Hinds said the ministry notes that people with pre-existing health conditions are at a higher risk and unvaccinated people accounted for most deaths. When comparing the previous week to the current, there are mild to moderate increases in most counties weekly. There was a slight decrease in Victoria County over the last week.

Apart from the increased movement of people, Hinds said the transmission of the Delta variant is leading the increasing numbers because it is more transmissible than previous strains. He said when the ministry previously considered herd immunity, it looked at numbers between 900,000 and one million people. He said this was concerning the less transmissible variants like the Gamma and R1.

“Those variants were less likely to transmit themselves from one individual to another than the current variant, which is establishing itself as the new dominant strain, that being the Delta. We continue to see increasing numbers because we now have a variant with increased transmissibility in circulation. The only real remedy for that is to help to decouple those increasing numbers from increasing hospitalisations and increasing deaths by having increasing levels of vaccination for your own protection.”

He stressed that every vaccinated person has a reduced risk of contracting COVID-19 and even if they do, illness or death is unlikely.